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PSI WARS |
"Authoritative and accessible review of the state of scientific research into paranormal phenomena . . . Anyone seeking something more sophisticated than the usual mud-slinging should buy this book." Robert Matthews, New Scientist Full text of review
"Can we expect a fair discussion from such a provocative lead [title and cover illustration]? Yes, we can!" Stanley Schmidt, J. Scientific Exploration.
"The debate is pursued in a polite and refeshingly reasonable style." Donald J. West, Journal of the Society for Psychical Research.
"Refreshingly insists that psi must not be written off because it is not cononant with presently known laws." Hugh Montefiori, Christian Parapysychologist.
At the heart of the parapsychology (psi) battle are two types of phenomena: extra-sensory perception (ESP) and psycho-kinesis (PK). ESP is reception of information without any normal sensory means; PK is the use of the mind to influence physical states without any direct physical contact. Neither effect can be explained by ordinary science, so parapsychologists with experimental evidence that they are real are accused of bad science or bad faith or both. This collection of essays shows that a simple division into ‘sceptics’ and ‘believers’ cannot be made. The real struggle, for all researchers, is not with each other, but to get a secure hold on the subject itself.
James Alcock is professor of psychology at York University, Toronto.
Burns and Freeman are editors of the Journal of Consciousness
Studies.
Contents
Editorial Introduction
- Anthony Freeman
- A Long Time Coming: A Personal Reflection abstract
- Jean E. Burns
- What Is Beyond the Edge of the Known World? abstract
- James E. Alcock
- full text Give the Null Hypothesis a Chance:
Reasons to Remain Doubtful about the Existence of Psi full text
Experiments Concerning Psi
- John Palmer
- ESP In the Ganzfeld: Analysis of a Debate abstract
- Matthew D. Smith
- The Role of the Experimenter in Parapsychological Research abstract
- Simon J. Sherwood and Chris A. Roe
- A Review of Dream ESP Studies Conducted Since the Maimonides Dream ESP Studies abstract
- Adrian Parker
- We Ask, Does Psi Exist? But Is This the Right Question and Do We Really Want an Answer Anyway? abstract
- Stanley Jeffers
- Physics and Claims for Anomalous Effects Related to Consciousness abstract
Views About Anecdotal Accounts of Psi
- Christoper C. French
- Fantastic Memories: The Relevance of Research into Eyewitness Testimony and False Memories for Reports of Anomalous Experiences abstract
- Geoffrey Dean and Ivan W. Kelly
- Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi? abstractcommentary (Sunday Telegraph)
Theoretical Perspectives
- Fotini Pallikari
- Must the ‘Magic’ of Psychokinesis Hinder Precise Scientific Measurement? abstract
- P. Brugger and K.I. Taylor
- ESP: Extrasensory Perception or Effect of Subjective Probability? abstract
ABSTRACTS
Peter Brugger and Kirsten I. Taylor
ESP: Extrasensory Perception or Effect of Subjective Probability?
This paper consists of two parts. In the first, we discuss the neuropsychological correlates of belief in a ‘paranormal’ or magical causation of coincidences. In particular, we review experimental evidence demonstrating that believers in ESP and kindred forms of paranormal phenomena differ from disbelievers with respect to indices of sequential response production and semantic-associative processing. Not only do believers judge artificial coincidences as more ‘meaningful’ than disbelievers, they also more strongly suppress coincidental productions (i.e. repetitions) in their generation of random sequences. These findings illuminate the cognitive mechanisms underlying the formation and maintenance of paranormal beliefs for which the right cerebral hemisphere is hypothesized to play a central role. These same right hemispheric semantic-associative processing characteristics are centrally implicated in the creative thought process as well as the genesis of delusional (pathological) beliefs (e.g. ideas of reference).The second part of the paper highlights how fundamental limitations in the concept of randomness constrain the analysis and interpretation of forced-choice experiments in the field of parapsychology. Relevant proposals have periodically been forwarded during the past century (key names: Goodfellow, Brown, Gatlin). These suggest that (1) as human subjects’ guesses are highly non-random and (2) as no finite sequence of target alternatives is free of bias, above-chance matching of guesses to targets simply reflects the amount of sequential information common to both target and guess sequences. The importance of such a non-causal model has been regularly downplayed by conservative parapsychologists, especially those who insist that ESP involves a transfer of information. Moreover, statistically significant relationships between guessing accuracy and personality factors and/or experimental manipulations most likely do not reflect a transfer of information, but are to be expected if subjects’ sequential response biases are systematically influenced by these same factors.
Correspondence: Peter Brugger, Neuropsychologische Abteilung, Neurologische
Klinik USZ, Frauenklinikstrasse 26, 8091 Zürich, Switzerland. Email:
peter.brugger@usz.ch. Kirsten I. Taylor, Dept. of Experimental Psychology,
Downing Site, Cambridge CB2 3EB, U.K.
Jean E. Burns
What is Beyond the Edge of the Known World?
Abstract: Experiments show that psi differs from known physical processes in a variety of ways, and these differences are described herein. Because of these, psi cannot be accounted for in terms of presently known physical laws. A number of theories, of which we review a sampling, suggest ways in which known physical laws might be expanded in order to account for psi. However, there is no agreement on which of these theories, if any, will ultimately provide a general explanation. A further problem in studying psi is that it is elusive, i.e., methods are not presently known by which it can be reliably produced. However, if psi is real, its study can open the door to a new frontier of knowledge and contribute to our understanding of consciousness.Jean Burns, 1525 – 153rd Street, San Leandro, CA 94578, USA. Email:
jeanbur@earthlink.net
Geoffrey Dean and Ivan W. Kelly
Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?
Abstract: Many astrologers attribute a successful birth-chart reading to what they call intuition or psychic ability, where the birth chart acts like a crystal ball. As in shamanism, they relate consciousness to a transcendent reality that, if true, might require a re-assessment of present biological theories of consciousness. In Western countries roughly 1 person in 10,000 is practising or seriously studying astrology, so their total number is substantial. Many tests of astrologers have been made since the 1950s but only recently has a coherent review been possible. A large-scale test of persons born less than five minutes apart found no hint of the similarities predicted by astrology. Meta-analysis of more than forty controlled studies suggests that astrologers are unable to perform significantly better than chance even on the more basic tasks such as predicting extraversion. More specifically, astrologers who claim to use psychic ability perform no better than those who do not. The possibility that astrology might be relevant to consciousness and psi is not denied, but such influences, if they exist in astrology, would seem to be very weak or very rare.Professor I.W. Kelly, Department of Educational Psychology, 28 Campus Drive, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada S7N 0X1. Email: ivan.kelly@usask.ca
Christopher C. French
Fantastic Memories
The Relevance of Research into Eyewitness Testimony and False Memories for Reports of Anomalous Experiences
Abstract: Reports of anomalous experiences are to be found in all known societies, both historically and geographically. If these reports were accurate, they would constitute powerful evidence for the existence of paranormal forces. However, research into the fallibility of human memory suggests that we should be cautious in accepting such reports at face value. Experimental research has shown that eyewitness testimony is unreliable, including eyewitness testimony for anomalous events. The present paper also reviews recent research into susceptibility to false memories and considers the relevance of such work for assessing reports of anomalous events. It is noted that a number of psychological variables that have been shown to correlate with susceptibility to false memories (e.g., hypnotic susceptibility, tendency to dissociate) also correlate with the tendency to report paranormal and related anomalous experiences. Although attempts to show a direct link between tendency to report anomalous experiences and susceptibility to false memories have had only limited success to date, this may reflect the use of inappropriate measures.Christopher C. French, Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit, Dept of Psychology, Goldsmiths College, University of London, New Cross, London SE14 6NW, UK. Email: psa01ccf@gold.ac.uk
Stanley Jeffers
Physics and Claims for Anomalous Effects Related to Consciousness
Abstract: A minority of physicists has endorsed some claims made for anomalous effects related to consciousness. A smaller number have attempted experiments to establish the veracity of such claims. The nature of these claims, in particular those for psychokinesis, is reviewed. Most of the experimental work bearing on these claims conducted by professional scientists has not yielded convincing evidence in their support. What are frequently stated to be the most credible claims are not, in fact, persuasive and furthermore the appeals to quantum mechanics by way of explanation are questionable.S. Jeffers, Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Fotini Pallikari
Must the ‘Magic’ of Psychokinesis Hinder Precise Scientific Measurement?
Abstract: Although evidential reports of paranormal phenomena (psi for short) have been accumulating over the last 50 years, scepticism within the scientific community at large against the very existence of psi has not retreated in proportion. Strong criticism has been voiced and it is worth taking it under serious consideration while attempting to understand psi. This article reviews the micro- psychokinesis phenomenon, aiming to reconcile evidence that favours it with other evidence that seems to refute it. To achieve this challenging task, some seemingly irrelevant observations will be invoked — such as the often observed decline and differential effects, the ten-year-old statistical balancing effect, the longstanding reports for the experimental evidence of PK, the recent large-scale failure to replicate the conventional PK hypothesis — alongside the austere arguments against PK. This paper argues that the evidence can withstand this serious criticism.F. Pallikari, Physics Dept, Athens University, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, Athens 15784, Greece. Email: fpallik@phys.uoa.gr
John Palmer
ESP in the Ganzfeld. Analysis of a Debate
Abstract: This paper reviews the debate over the evidence for ESP provided by experiments using the ganzfeld technique, a simple method used to induce a mild altered state of consciousness. The quantitative literature review technique called meta-analysis has played a prominent role in this controversy. The first question addressed by the reviewer is whether the data establish that ESP in the ganzfeld is replicable. Issues discussed include the effect of multiple analyses, the ‘file-drawer’ problem and statistical errors. The second question asks, if the effect is real, can it be explained by methodological artifacts? Potential flaws discussed include sensory leakage, problems of randomization and participant fraud. The reviewer’s first conclusion is that the aggregate database does provide evidence for a genuine psi effect. However, heterogeneity of results across experimenters indicates that the phenomenon is not easily replicable. The second conclusion is that conventional alternative explanations offered for the observed results tend to be conceivable, but even critics sometimes agree that they are implausible.John Palmer, Rhine Research Center, 2741 Campus Walk Aveune, Building 500, Durham, NC 27705, USA. Email: john@rhine.org
Adrian Parker
We Ask, Does Psi Exist? But is this the right question and do we really want an answer anyway?
Abstract: Although the question ‘Does psi exist?’ has become a recurrent and intransigent problem for psychological science, seen from a historical and social context, there appear to be reasons as to why no determined effort has been made to resolve the question. The sporadic exchanges from parapsychologists and critics appear only to reinforce the status quo: At most, it is agreed that some form of ‘anomaly’ has been established but there is no consensus about its nature. Yet such a defeatist stance shies away from the long tradition of research into spontaneous phenomena, as well as experimental research with dreams and hypnosis, all of which suggests that, if psi is real, it is not just an anomaly but has true information content and dynamic effects. This work is briefly reviewed and then, since much of the current controversy has centred on the ganzfeld technique, this is used as an example of the issues involved. The ganzfeld induces sleep-onset imagery during which randomly selected film clips are viewed by a sender as a source of psi-mediated information to be incorporated into the imagery. Our current development of the ganzfeld technique, known as the digital autoganzfeld, takes the work beyond ‘anomaly status’ since it enables real-time recordings to be made of apparently high-quality psi as it enters consciousness. Initial findings from this illustrate the complexity of the phenomena and the need for more adventurous designs in order to stimulate theory development. There is no doubt that technology now exists which would enable us to resolve the issues raised. Whether the area turns out to be a mixture of rampant fraud, artefact and subjective validation or to present genuine phenomena, a resolution of the issue may be seen as having unwanted implications for psychology — which may be one of the factors explaining why the controversy is left to continue as it is, unresolved. New questions are needed which take into account the natural context in which psi appears to occur, along with the support needed to reach clear answers.Adrian Parker, Dept of Psychology, University of Gothenburg, Box 500, SE 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden. Email: adrian.parker@psy.gu.se
Simon J. Sherwood and Chris A. Roe
A Review of Dream ESP Studies Conducted Since the Maimonides Dream ESP Programme
Abstract: We review the dream ESP studies conducted since the end of the Maimonides research programme. Combined effect size estimates for both sets of studies (Maimonides r = 0.33, 95% C.I. 0.24 to 0.43; post-Maimonides r = 0.14, 95% C.I. 0.06 to 0.22) suggest that judges could correctly identify target materials more often than would be expected by chance using dream mentation. Maimonides studies were significantly more successful (p< 0.05) than post-Maimonides studies, which may be due to procedural differences, including that post-Maimonides receivers tended to sleep at home and were generally not deliberately awakened from REM sleep. Methodological shortcomings of some studies are discussed. Nevertheless, home dream ESP research has been successful and continues to be a less expensive and less labour-intensive alternative to sleep-laboratory-based research. We hope that interest in dream ESP research will be re-awakened.Simon Sherwood, Division of Psychology, University College Northampton, Boughton Green Road, Northampton NN2 7AL, UK. Email: Simon.Sherwood@northampton.ac.uk
Matthew D. Smith
The Role of the Experimenter in Parapsychological Research
Abstract: A major challenge facing modern parapsychology continues to be the replicability of psi. Whilst some researchers appear to consistently obtain positive evidence for psi, others, equally consistently, appear to be less successful. Previous research has attempted to explain this so-called ‘experimenter effect’ in terms of both psychological variables (in terms of how the experimenter treats his or her participants) and parapsychological variables (the experimenter may use his or her own psi to affect the data). In this paper, both of these interpretations are considered, as are other possible interpretations (such as experimenter error and experimenter fraud). Research in this area emphasises the important role of the experimenter in parapsychology. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible implications for the study of consciousness.Matthew D. Smith, Psychology Dept, Liverpool Hope University College, Hope Park, Liverpool L16 9JD, UK. Email: smithm3@hope.ac.uk
Anthony Freeman
A Long Time Coming A Personal Reflection
The history of this collection goes back to 1994 and the very first issue of the Journal of Consciousness Studies. That number included a short paper by John Beloff on the subject of conscious machines, and it evoked some controversy for JCS because he quoted Alan Turing as saying that the evidence for psi is overwhelming. Beloff drew attention to a seldom noted aspect of Alan Turing’s paper that introduced his famous Turing test for machine intelligence (Turing, 1950). Turing had suggested that extrasensory perception (ESP) might provide the one means to smoke out even the most sophisticated computer trying to imitate a human being:Thus, given that you had a human being gifted with ESP in one room and a computer in another, the player in his imitation game could ask the two candidates to guess a given sequence of cards. Since the computer, using a random number generator, would be able to guess only at chance levels it would soon become clear which of the two was the human being and which the computer. ‘Unfortunately’, writes Turing, ‘the statistical evidence, at least for telepathy, is overwhelming’. (Beloff, 1994, p. 35.)
Beloff claimed that materialist scientists and philosophers refuse
to accept the reality of the paranormal, not for lack of evidence (evidence
that Turing found ‘overwhelming’), but because it ‘upsets the physicalist
applecart’ (p. 36). In particular, according to Beloff, the proven existence
of parapsychological (psi) phenomena would show the mind is able to interact
causally with matter, and thus remove at a stroke the chief objection to
the ‘radical dualism’, which he himself espouses.
Reading Beloff today, I find it is hard to see this as more than an eye-twinkling bit of fun, teasingly invoking ‘the father of artificial intelligence’ in support of a crusade against physicalism. The article contained nothing new or threatening. But at the time it undoubtedly exposed a fear that the new journal might be ‘flakey’ (to borrow the adjective applied at the time by Thomas Metzinger). The implication was that no mainstream scientist or philosopher would want to have anything to do with JCS. Nine years on, with reputable scholars from all branches of consciousness studies contributing to the journal, such fears might appear fanciful, but they were real enough at the time. The editors, some of whom shared in the concerns about Beloff’s paper, were properly cautious in their response to criticisms of the article.
Anthony Freeman, Imprint Academic, PO Box 200, Exeter EX5 5YX, UK.